Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
