Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
